Does Intention Predict Action: What Evidence Says.
Does intention predict action? The evidence says yes, but only as a weak signal. Also, once you are stuck at high intention without crossing over, more intention stops being your lever.
Does intention predict action in research.
In 2015 Teemu Kautonen, Marco van Gelderen and Matthias Fink followed 969 adults in Austria and Finland. They used two surveys a year apart. So does intention predict action? In their data, it predicted who later took start-up actions. Also, the link stayed stable across demographically different people in their sample.
A small clue mistaken for a big one.
So the honest version is not that wanting does not matter. Instead, think of intention as a weak signal that almost everybody treats as a strong one. Saying you intend to start tells someone slightly more about you. However, it does not tell them whether you will do it.
When intention stops mattering.
In 2019 Servane Delanoë-Gueguen and Alain Fayolle followed people before a business existed. Intention helped identify who would move, but only up to a point. This shows when intentions stop mattering, because once real actions begin, starting intention predicts little. So if you have sat at maximum intention for years, more intention is not your lever.
Steps when you ask does intention predict action.
Write down how many years you have stayed at high intention without one visible action.
Choose one small action another person could see, and do it before tomorrow.
From the book.
So the honest version is not that wanting does not matter. The honest version is that wanting is a weak signal which almost everybody, you included, has been treating as a strong one. If you tell me you intend to start a business, I know slightly more about you than I did a minute ago. I do not know whether you will do it.
I Want to Start a Business but I Never Actually Start, chapter 1: The gap between wanting and doing
Questions about does intention predict action.
Does intention predict action, according to the 2015 study?
Yes. Intention predicted who took start-up actions among 969 adults followed across two surveys a year apart.
Why is more intention not the lever?
Because intention only predicts anything before you cross over. Pulling harder on it keeps you where you are.
Does the author say wanting is useless?
No. He says wanting is a weak signal, not noise, that people mistake for a strong one.
Read the whole chapter.
This lesson covers one section of chapter 1, “The gap between wanting and doing”. The book goes further, with the full evidence, the stories and every exercise.
Lessons in this chapter.
- 01 Wanting It Badly Is Not Enough: The Boston Lesson.
- 02 Global Entrepreneurship Monitor Data: The Real Gap.
- 03 Unlaunched Business Ideas: Why They Leave No Trace.
- 04 Does Intention Predict Action: What Evidence Says.
- 05 Busy Work vs Real Progress: Who Can Say No.
- 06 How Long Have I Been Planning: The Sentence Audit.
- 07 Nobody Remembers My Business Idea: What It Means.