Impact bias criticism: what the research can claim.
Impact bias criticism shows the finding is real but softer than the popular version suggests. It is a tendency rather than a law, and an average rather than a prophecy about you. So it cannot predict your disappointment, but it does justify checking your forecast.
The 2012 challenge.
In 2012, researchers led by Linda Levine argued the impact bias might partly reflect how questions are asked. For example, asked how happy they will be, people may answer about their whole life. However, asked about the specific thing, the bias shrinks. Wilson and Gilbert replied and defended the effect.
The exchange that followed was titled Like Schrödinger's Cat, the Impact Bias Is Both Dead and Alive.
What impact bias criticism says about size.
The effect is also smaller than people assume. One meta-analysis of attempts to change anticipated regret put it at around a fifth of a standard deviation. That is small by any conventional reading. Also, there appears to be no large registered replication of the core finding yet.
What this means for you specifically.
None of that makes the effect false. Instead, it makes it an average, and you might be someone who predicts accurately. Therefore the claim here is narrow. If you are like most people, you are probably overestimating the emotional payoff by some amount. Then the sensible move is a cheap check before an expensive discovery.
Use impact bias criticism to set a fair test.
Write down how confident you are, from one to ten, that your happiness forecast is accurate.
Then commit to one cheap check, like a two-week log, before making any final decision.
From the book.
None of that makes it false. What it makes it is a tendency rather than a law, and an average rather than a prophecy about you. You might be the person who predicts accurately, and somebody has to be, and I've no way of knowing whether it's you.
I Want to Start a Business but I Can't Quit My Job, chapter 6: You are guessing how it will feel, and the guess is wrong
Questions about impact bias criticism.
Does impact bias criticism mean the effect is fake?
No. It means the effect is a tendency and an average, smaller than the popular version suggests.
How large is the effect?
One meta-analysis on anticipated regret put it at around a fifth of a standard deviation, which is small.
Can the research tell me I will be disappointed?
No. It only suggests that most people overestimate the emotional payoff by some amount.
Read the whole chapter.
This lesson covers one section of chapter 6, “You are guessing how it will feel, and the guess is wrong”. The book goes further, with the full evidence, the stories and every exercise.
Lessons in this chapter.
- 01 Impact bias: why you misjudge future feelings.
- 02 Focusing illusion: why your job gets too much weight.
- 03 Self employed life satisfaction: the five-year gap.
- 04 Job satisfaction vs life satisfaction: two scores.
- 05 Hedonic adaptation: why autonomy does not wear off.
- 06 Impact bias criticism: what the research can claim.
- 07 Mood diary: a one-line log for two weeks.
- 08 Arrival fallacy: what reaching a goal really felt like.